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I WANT TO MOCK RIGHT NOW… I’M DARKHORSE AND I CAME TO GET DOWN

Everybody's wondering -- where will Tebow go? (Source: AP)

With the NFL Draft mere hours away, I’m mock drafting a wild first round. For my money, a mock draft is more fun when it includes trade activity–a big trade in the first round rocks the boat, and renders “non-trade” mocks impotent. I’m throwing it down right here, boys–tonight’s gonna’ be a wild one.

The key to this evening’s first round, in my opinion, is Kansas City and Seattle. If these guys go offensive tackle at #5 and #6, the first round could unfold methodically–minus the drama. But, if either one selects Texas safety Eric Berry, it leaves the Cleveland Browns alone on the dance floor. As a Browns fan, I’m planning for Berry to be gone (I don’t believe Scott Pioli will take a safety at #5, but I think Pete Carroll is game). I *do* believe the Browns are very high on Berry, and (unless they go Clausen, which would surprise me) G.M. Tom Heckert will push to trade down if their guy’s been picked. If this happens, I believe two teams will to go after Jimmy-Boy Clausen at #7–mainly because they fear him going to Buffalo at #9 (and maybe even Oakland at #8).

With this in mind, one trend I believe you’ll see tonight is a run on the (potentially over-hyped) quarterbacks. If Clausen goes early, a handful of teams will panic and consider moving up to take Colt McCoy. Bottom line: Selecting the right QB on draft day can change your franchise for 15 years, and it’s too tempting for QB-less teams to ignore–even though it rarely works out, and can cripple a team. This is the Holy Grail. With Bradford, Clausen, and McCoy gone midway through Round One, the spotlight will shift (or, burn that much brighter) on Timmy Tebow. Will a team take a chance on Tim? Find out below. I also think we’ll see a number of teams (like Philly and Dallas) aggressively go after their guy. Dallas, in particular, is not going to let the Randy Moss debacle happen twice–they will go after the draft’s only game-changing, mercurial WR with a vengeance.

I’m no expert at this (who is?). Feel free to rip me to shreds. These fan draft boards are vastly different than those held by NFL teams. We may capture the top 10 players, but I’m not sure we can predict a thing past that–so, why not have fun with it? (Note: Trade activity is marked in red.)

MOCK DRAFT LOCKED on 4/22/10 at 1:17 PST

R O U N D  O N E

1. St. Louis (1-15) - Sam Bradford, QB/Oklahoma
2. Detroit (2-14) - Ndamukong Suh, DT/Nebraska
3. Tampa Bay (3-13) – Gerald McCoy, DT/Oklahoma
4. Washington (4-12) – Trent Williams, OT/Oklahoma
5. Kansas City (4-12) – Russell Okung, OT/Oklahoma State
6. Seattle (5-11) – Eric Berry, S/Tennessee

7. Cleveland (5-11) – TRADES THE PICK – With Eric Berry taken, the Browns trade the pick to San Francisco, for the Niners 1/13 and 2/49, and a late-round pick (I don’t buy into the value chart this time around).
7. San Francisco (from Cleveland) – Jimmy Clausen, QB/Notre Dame

8. Oakland (5-11) – Bryan Bulaga, OT/Iowa

9. Buffalo (6-10) – TRADES THE PICK – Buffalo trades the pick to Miami for Miami’s 1/12, a later-round pick, and the rights to Chad Pennington.
9. Miami (from Buffalo) – Jason Pierre-Paul, DE/South Florida

10. Jacksonville (7-9) – TRADES THE PICK – The Jaguars trade the pick to Philadelphia, for the Eagles 1/24, 2/37, and later round picks.
10. Philadelphia (from Jacksonville) – Earl Thomas, S/Texas

11. Denver (from Chicago 7-9) – TRADES THE PICK – The Broncos trade the pick to Dallas, for the Cowboys 1/27, 2/59, etc. (I’m not sure they could pull a 2nd from Dallas, but let’s go with it.)
11. Dallas (from Denver) – Dez Bryant, WR/Oklahoma State

12. Buffalo (from Miami 7-9) – Colt McCoy, QB/Texas – Buffalo reaches for McCoy, but doesn’t want to lose him.
13. Cleveland (from San Francisco 8-8) – C.J. Spiller, RB/Clemson
14. Seattle (from Denver 8-8) – Ryan Mathews, RB/Fresno State
15. New York Giants (8-8) – Rolando McClain, LB/Alabama
16. Tennessee (8-8) – Dan Williams, NT/Tennessee
17. San Francisco (from Carolina 8-8) – Derrick Morgan, DE/Georgia Tech
18. Pittsburgh (9-7) – Mike Iupati, OG/Idaho
19. Atlanta (9-7) – Jared Odrick, DT/Penn State
20. Houston (9-7) – Joe Haden, CB/Florida
21. Cincinnati (10-6) – Jermaine Gresham, TE/Oklahoma
22. New England (10-6) – Taylor Mays, S/USC
23. Green Bay (11-5) – Anthony Davis, OT/Rutgers
24. Jacksonville (from Philadelphia 11-5) – Sergio Kindle, LB/Texas
25. Baltimore (9-7) – Charles Brown, OT/USC
26. Arizona (10-6) – DeMaryius Thomas, WR/Georgia Tech
27. Denver (from Dallas 11-5) – Brandon Graham, DE/Michigan
28. San Diego (13-3) – Kyle Wilson, CB
29. New York Jets (9-7) – Kareem Jackson, CB/Alabama
30. Minnesota (12-4) – Maurkice Pouncey, C/Florida
31. Indianapolis (14-2) – Jerry Hughes, DE/TCU
32. New Orleans (13-3) – Everson Griffen, DE/USC

R O U N D  T W O

33. St. Louis – Jahvid Best, RB/California
34. Detroit – Bruce Campbell, OT/Maryland
35. Tampa Bay – Patrick Robinson, CB/Florida St.

36. Kansas City – TRADES THE PICK – The Chiefs trade the pick to the Browns for Cleveland’s 2/38 and a later pick.
36. Cleveland (from Jacksonville) – Tim Tebow, QB/Florida

37. Jacksonville (from Philadelphia, via Washington) – Nate Allen, S/South Florida
38. Kansas City (from Cleveland) – Chad Jones, S/LSU
39. Oakland – Terrence Cody, NT/Alabama
40. San Diego (from Seattle) – Jonathan Dwyer, RB/Georgia Tech
41. Buffalo – Rodger Saffold, OT/Indiana
42. Tampa Bay (from Chicago) – Sean Weatherspoon, LB/Missouri
43. Denver (from Miami) – Golden Tate, WR/Notre Dame
44. New England (from Jacksonville) – Carlos Dunlap, DE/Florida
45. Denver – Navorro Bowman, LB/Penn St.
46. NY Giants – Matt Tennant, C/Boston College
47. New England (from Tennessee) – Sean Lee, LB/Penn St.
48. Carolina – Damian Williams, WR/USC
49. Cleveland (from San Francisco) – Devin McCourty, CB/Rutgers
50. Kansas City (from Atlanta) – Brian Price, DT/UCLA
51. Houston – Cam Thomas, DT/North Carolina
52. Pittsburgh – Brandon LaFell, WR/LSU
53. New England – Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford
54. Cincinnati – Daryl Washington, LB/TCU
55. Philadelphia – Arrelious Benn, WR/Illinois
56. Green Bay – Morgan Burnett, S/Georgia Tech
57. Baltimore – Corey Wootton, DE/Northwestern
58. Arizona – Koa Misi, LB/Utah
59. Denver (from Dallas) – Chris Cook, CB/Virginia
60. Seattle (from San Diego) – Vladimir Ducasse, OT/Massachusetts
61. NY Jets – Dexter McCluster, RB/Mississippi
62. Minnesota – Aaron Hernandez, TE/Florida
63. Indianapolis – Alex Carrington, DE/Arkansas St.
64. New Orleans – Brandon Ghee, CB/Wake Forest