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A meeting of the (flawed) minds…

Earlier this week, TheDarkHorse engaged in a web chat with fellow staff writer C-O-U-R-T-N-E-Y-! to discuss this week’s NFL Draft, the state of the league, and some predictions for the season ahead.

It's good to be the Commish. (Source: NFLNewsWorld)

THEDARKHORSE: One of the more memorable offseasons in recent memory is about to sizzle with this week’s NFL Draft. In your opinion, is Sam Bradford a lock at #1 for the Rams? We’re hearing whispers about teams looking to trade up–is it just typical pre-Draft, rumor-based chatter, or is something cooking?

C-O-U-R-T-N-E-Y-!: I’ve been keeping my ear to the ground on this one and, while I do think a number of teams–including the Browns–have and will inquire, at the end of the day, Sam Bradford will be a Ram. The asking price to move up is too high, the risks associated with jumping up to draft a guy coming off an injury are too high, and the Rams’ need for a quarterback is too high. I think the real question is what the Lions do at number two. This is a deep draft and, like many teams, they are signaling they would like to trade the pick, and reports are that they don’t even have a consensus internally on who they would like to pick. Which team is the most likely to trade UP into the top five in the first draft?

THEDARKHORSE: I don’t believe that Holmgren will sell the farm to select Bradford, which would be disappointing. The top pick is such an expensive risk. It’s tough to envision a team sacrificing multiple picks to trade up into the top five. If this draft is ultimately as deep as they say, your second-, third-, and fourth-round picks are pure gold, and if we could hear the chatter behind closed doors on Thursday evening, I imagine we’d witness teams anxious to trade down, but having a difficult time locating suitors. For my money, picking in the middle of the round is preferred: you get a high-quality player who will contribute immediately without blowing up payroll. Moreover, it takes some of the heat off that young athlete. The draft is over-analyzed and, too often, lacks reality–taking place in a vacuum, where Alex Smith becomes football’s biggest prize. The best front-office men ignore hyperbole. In the end, will Bradford be a better quarterback for being forced onto the field behind a terrible Rams offensive line? Or… does someone like Romo end up succeeding because he appeared out of nowhere and had the proper time to analyze the game and learn? With all that said, tell me the following: which draftee surprises everyone with his dominance? Which player melts into oblivion?

C-O-U-R-T-N-E-Y-!: I totally agree with you. I think the player that melts into oblivion (aka the Vernon Gholston Award) is Jimmy Clausen. I have a pre-disposition against Notre Dame quarterbacks just because so many of them (Rick Mirer, Brady Quinn, and Ron Pawlus come to mind) are so hyped and, when push comes to shove, don’t produce. Clausen had a good year in some respects last year (showed some moxie against USC), but I ultimately just don’t see what is so special about him. He threw 17 interceptions last year against a schedule that included a lot of less-than-pro caliber defenses. I also think he stands to get drafted by a lousy team (Buffalo, maybe Seattle) and be thrown to the fire before he is mature enough to handle it. On the flip side, I think Dez Bryant is going to surprise people. If he wasn’t kicked out of school he would going much higher on mock boards. I also think CJ Spiller is going to be very, very good.

THEDARKHORSE: Let’s talk a little bit about this active offseason. Do you see any organizations effectively turning things around? Any others slowly imploding?

Seem like this guy's already crowned the Jets champs? (Source: AP)

C-O-U-R-T-N-E-Y-!: Can you remember another off-season where so many marquee names were moved?  LaDanian Tomlinson, Donovan McNabb, Larry Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Santonio Holmes. And there are still a lot of big names without a home, including guys like Brian Westbrook and Flozell Adams. Everybody is talking about the Jets’ off-season, and the Jets have had a good off-season but, to me, no team has improved itself more than the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins went out and addressed a massive need–getting a go-to wide receiver in his prime–who is going to add some serious punch and balance to that offense. Now you have a young and improving quarterback and a stud wide receiver to build around for years to come. Although they paid a lot for a non-pressure linebacker in Karlos Dansby, he is a nice addition as well. I like the pieces the Jets and Redskins added but, Cromartie aside, both teams got players past their prime. With respect to Donovan McNabb, I wonder how well he will transition into the Mike Shanahan offensive scheme. The New England Patriots have easily had the most disappointing off-season. This is a team that has a lot of holes to fill on both sides of the ball but have done little to address them. An aging Randy Moss, an injured Wes Welker, an aging offensive line, an un-productive Adelius Thomas, poor secondary play–questions abound. They have twelve picks in this year’s draft, but five of them are seventh rounders. When coupled with the fact that both the Jets and Dolphins have been aggressive and improved themselves, the eerie silence coming out of Foxborough is surprising. What has surprised you the most about this off-season?

THEDARKHORSE: I’m curious to see how Pete Carroll fares in Seattle, beginning with the team’s approach to the first and second rounds of the draft. The Seahawks gave up a third-round pick for QB Charlie Whitehurst–who’s essentially never played a down when it mattered. On paper, it seems like they got jobbed on that deal, but I’ll give Carroll the benefit of the doubt for now. I have been impressed with the offseason of the Baltimore Ravens. I’m not inclined to root for that organization, but you have to view them as one of the more dangerous offenses in the AFC. With the addition of Anquan Boldin and Donte Stallworth–to go with Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton–the Ravens passing game appears dangerous, and made more so by the threat of Ray Rice and their stable of running backs. Is there a better G.M. than Ozzie Newsome? Baltimore stands as the team to beat in the AFC North. In general, it gets easy to look at “active” teams as having improved themselves the most–but a lot of these teams are signing players who are expendable for a reason, or they’re overpaying for middle-tier free agents. I do believe that the best teams draft well, year after year. Question: Is Dallas the team to beat in the NFC East? And what do you make of the Giants implosion last season–was it a blip on the radar, or is the NFC changing?

C-O-U-R-T-N-E-Y-!: Dallas’ off-season has been nothing short of bizarre. At the end of last season, Jerry Jones indicated Dallas would be an active player in free agency and that he anticipated adding some starters this off-season. He said the goal was to create competition at positions. He didn’t need to say that, but he did. Other than insulting Bill Parcells in a Youtube video, the Cowboys and Jones have not done anything… other than cut Ken Hamlin (easy choice, parlayed one good year into an overloaded contract) and Flozell Adams (odd choice). Make no mistake, Adams’ play has slipped. But, in so doing Dallas, which has long had problems with drafting offensive linemen, stripped itself of any depth on the offensive line because Doug Free–who has some talent–now becomes the starter. Free has never played left tackle in the NFL. Why not at least have Free and Adams compete for the job?  For a team that used to pride itself on filling holes in free agency (to give itself flexibility in the draft), Dallas’ off-season moves have only increased needs as the draft approaches. To boot: why Dallas hasn’t signed a veteran kicker yet boggles the mind. Thus, while the Giants and Redskins have improved this off-season, Dallas has regressed. I think the Giants are my dark horse (pardon the pun, TDH) favorite to win the NFC East. Last year was an aberration for them. If they get back to being more aggressive on defense, and their young receivers continue to develop, they will return to 2008 form. That the NFC is changing is no more evident than if you look at the Philadelphia Eagles–a playoff team that unloaded two of the main reasons of past success in Westbrook and McNabb. And on the AFC side, who is the best team on paper right now?

Considering how Jerry felt about Jimmy and Bill, is this a marriage built to last? (Source: AP)

THEDARKHORSE: I don’t think a whole lot has changed at the top of the AFC. The Colts manhandled the conference last season, and while I have predicted their doom for a while now, I don’t see any reason to believe they won’t dominate that division and return to the playoffs as a favorite for the Super Bowl. I’m not lazily looking past the rest of the AFC South, but until we see a team definitively stamp the Colts, I don’t see them having trouble in that division. I don’t see a dominant team in the conference beyond Indy. San Diego needed to make a statement in the playoffs and, instead, were upstaged by the Jets–a team that intrigues me. I’ll never forget how the Jets went out and THUMPED the Bengals in the playoffs. They just beat them up. I like the coach–despite his quirks–and I like Sanchez. They’ve got some major pieces in place. The question with the Jets, for me, is do they build off last season, or regress? They play in a competitive division–and they may realistically be the second- or third-best team in the East. The AFC is a big, bad, dogfight in 2010. It does seem, to me, that we finally have some balance between the two conferences. There was that obscene streak of NFC Super Bowl wins that began with the Niners beating the Dolphins in the ’84 season, and endured until Elway and the Broncos beat the Packers in ’97. Then we saw New England dominate a very weak NFC. Today, we really have NO idea who will appear in, or win, the Super Bowl. That’s how the league wants it. Now… imagine for me, if you will, the Jones-Parcells phone conversation that took place in the wake of Jerry’s drunken, mouthy fiasco.

C-O-U-R-T-N-E-Y-!: Jerry and Bill are just trying to keep themselves relevant. Classic wag the dog.

THEDARKHORSE: Nothing has changed.