7
Oct
2011
NFL 2011 Quarter-Point Jump To Conclusions Mat
Michael Bolton: That's the worst idea I've ever heard in my life, Tom (Image via blogspot.com)
Every year, we try to refrain from pulling a Tom Smykowski from Office Space, and jumping to any conclusions about the upcoming NFL season prematurely. In a sixteen-game season, it usually takes several games for teams to figure out their identity, and a lot longer than that to determine a realistic playoff picture.
So, while it’s tempting to draw knee-jerk reactions from a couple of games, we at least try to wait until the quarter-point mark to start making our hyperbolic and definitive statements about the season ahead. Even with the lockout-shortened off-season, four games is enough to get a sense of which teams are back in the driver’s seat (Packers, Patriots), and which teams are going to have trouble living up to expectations (Jets, Rams).
So without further adieu, here are our top 5 observations on the ol’ Jump To Conclusions mat:
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(Photo: Philly.com)
The “Dream Team” is actually a Nightmare: This pre-season, the Philadelphia Eagles were crowned as NFC East Champions based almost solely on the big name signings made by GM Howie Roseman, who apparently attended the Dan Snyder school of Free Agency. Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins were among the stars to join the Philadelphia roster, and Eagles fans were planning trips to the Super Bowl before a down had been played.
Well, after a 1-3 start, the Eagles are proving that it takes more than just raw talent to win in the NFL, and chemistry can be the most important thing for a team to succeed. Plus, in the age of the salary cap, spending huge money at certain positions inevitably results in deficiencies elsewhere (see the Eagles LB corps), and so far the Philly defense has been a big disappointment. It will be interesting to see how Andy Reid – and the egos in his locker room – handles their early adversity.
- The Detroit Lions will compete for the NFC crown: Yes, the Lions bandwagon is already starting to get crowded after starting the season 4-0 for the first time since 1980, and completing consecutive comebacks of 20 points or more against the Vikings and Cowboys.Ndamukong Suh and Calvin Johnson are unquestionably young superstars in this league, and if Matt Stafford can remain healthy, they give Jim Schwartz’ team a chance to compete in any game. And first round draft pick Nick Fairley could return from injury this week, making Detroit’s defense even more imposing. Bottom line: the Lions will make playoffs this year.
- The Buffalo Bills are for real: The Bills are off to an impressive 3-1 start, and after defeating their hated rival Patriots in Week 3, they’re a fashionable pick to surprise in the AFC this year. Chan Gailey’s offense is clicking with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson and Steve Johnson off to a hot start, and the Bills defense has been opportunistic with 8 INTs. But those takeaways could be covering up for bigger problems on defense, and Buffalo faces a brutal schedule late in the season which will really test their road toughness. So while the Bills are definitely improved, and there’s reason for optimism in Buffalo, the division still goes through New England until someone proves otherwise.
(Photo: WashingtonPost.com)
12
Mar
2011
TheDarkHorse’s 2011 Mock Draft – Picks 1-5
Bank on it, this will be the new face of one NFL team come Draft Day (Source: Jimrome.com)
The 2011 NFL Draft could serve as our last dose of football for an unfriendly amount of time (especially if you’re an Oakland Raiders fan). Although it’s going to be awkward to watch NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell approach the podium before a packed house during a lockout, Draft Day (or, at this stage, Draft Thursday Night…) remains tangibly intriguing when a blue-chip quarterback has the chance to go No. 1.
It’s no sure thing, but with Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert rising up the board, it’s possible both could go in the top 10. One could argue that four of the first five teams to pick could go quarterback. I also wouldn’t rule out a team moving up for one the young guns — especially with Shanahan’s Redskins buried in the 10 slot — but this mock doesn’t include trades. Next month’s v.2 mock will take a shot at pinpointing some possible move-up/down scenarios. With that said, here’s my top 5 picks:
1. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton – QB, Auburn: Some don’t even have Newton in their top 10. I just don’t see Ron Rivera passing up this opportunity to bring in a franchise-altering passer with the No. 1 pick in the draft. Newton has his flaws, but there’s no way Carolina takes on the NFC South with what we’ve seen out of (granted, young) Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen. While it’s awfully tough to bypass some of the defensive line talent in this draft, I believe Newton will continue to rise up the board. It’s only mid-March. This quarterback’s gifts will only become more coveted as we approach late April. The Panthers are serious about Cam Newton and I expect him to end up as the top pick in this draft.
2. Denver Broncos – Marcell Dareus – DT, Alabama: John Fox is going defense with this pick. At 6-foot-3, 319 pounds, Dareus fits well into Fox’s 4-3 scheme, and has the potential to wreak havoc as a 3-technique the way Warren Sapp did in Tampa Bay — and Sapp himself has showered praise on the prospect. For the many top-shelf defensive line prospects in this draft — it’s one of the more stunning DT/DE draft classes in years — Dareus might be the safest pick, as a guy without looming medical or off-the-field concerns. If Nick Fairley has more potential, Dareus appears to have the work ethic for continued growth.
3. Buffalo Bills – Patrick Peterson – CB, LSU: The Bills are courting Newton and no doubt Chan Gailey is enticed by his athleticism. If Carolina passes, Newton could land here at No. 3. If he’s gone — and he is in this mock — the Bills will take Peterson, possibly the best football player in the draft. It’s unusual for a team to strike on a corner this high, but I don’t see the Bills taking Gabbert with this pick. Besides, in Ryan Fitzpatrick, they have a passer the team believes in and grew behind in 2010. The Bills need help all over the place on defense and go with the best player available here.
4. Cincinnati Bengals – Blaine Gabbert – QB, Missouri: If Carson Palmer wasn’t so inconsistent, you work out the issues, get him back in the house and move on. Palmer and the Bengals are at a crossroads, and with the QB making it clear he’s had enough in the Queen City, it’s time for Cincy to find his replacement. I’m not in love with Gabbert. Accuracy is an issue when you look beyond his short-field body of work. That said, with Newton gone, Gabbert represents a new dawn for Marvin Lewis.
5. Arizona Cardinals – Von Miller – DE/OLB, Texas A&M: Some are calling Von Miller‘s decision to join the players’ antitrust lawsuit against the NFL a risk. Is he an immediate problem? A guy with a renegade spirit? No. Another way to look at it — this is someone who has chosen to take a leadership role among his peers and represent his rookie class on a critical issue to the players (even if you think they already make too much). That aside, Miller is perhaps the most versatile defensive talent in the draft and music to the ears of the Cards. I keep hearing over and over that Arizona does not go quarterback with this pick — mainly because this could be it for Ken Whisenhunt, and you don’t risk a critical season on a rookie. You have to wonder if the Cards would surprise people and shoot for Newton or Gabbert is one is available.
For picks 6-10, go here.
For picks 11-20, go here.
3
Oct
2010
Runaway train — WAR HILLIS
A couple of thoughts:
* Few things of late are more satisfying than the sight of Peyton Hillis running through the Baltimore Ravens defense. It has been 20 years since the Browns had anything like it on the ground. Not sure it will last — this is Cleveland, he’ll probably tear his ACL tomorrow — and the Browns still LOST to the Ravens, but I don’t care. Watching this guy smash through that traitorous mess of a team was fantastic.
This guy is AFC North material. (Source: Zimbio.com)
* When I ask myself which team better step up huge and win at home this week PRONTO — or face a house cleaning — it’s the New York Giants. This team is on the brink of disaster, but a win over the 3-0 Bears (who don’t scare anyone yet) will go a long way to fixing the beginning of the season. New York seems like a team in search of something — anything — to grasp onto.
* Love how everyone spends all offseason talking about the Cowboys and Giants — and, to some degree, the Redskins due to McNabb and Shanny — and then Philly goes out, once again, and outplays everyone.
* Wicked tired of the Steelers.
* Have the Pats become the late-80s Chicago Bears? We respect them due to their somewhat-recent history, some of the star players are still hanging around, and we know they’ll win 11 games and reach the playoffs — but something is just out of place. They aren’t a Super Bowl team, and we all know it — and they know it. They’ve become the team that gets bumped in the Divisional round for the next three years.
* Detroit fans would take that life in a second.
* I just fell asleep for a few seconds while typing…
* Last night I had a strange dream where Belichick traded Brady to the Bucs for a second- and fifth-round pick. My wife didn’t feel the dream was significant enough to wake her up to recount at 4:03 a.m. — she made that clear. Sounds absurd, but BB’s the same guy who jettisoned Kosar and Bledsoe early enough to shock everyone.
* I hate doing laundry. It always somehow drops into my Sat/Sun schedule. Then I refuse to do it, and I’m fishing button-down shirts out of the hamper to start the workweek. Driving to the office in a wrinkled blue mess that smells slightly like jogging shorts that were peed in — the Browns 0-4 and nobody made coffee.
* T.O. and Ochocinco = snoozefest. Slightly more intriguing than Albert Haynesworth. Slightly less intriguing than Phil Simms and his folksy non-attempts at humor.
* Problem: Fourteen teams are impossible to believe as playoff contenders.
* NFC East might feature one playoff team.
* AFC East might feature three (but Miami needs to start winning prime-time games at home).
* Brady has soft, womanly hair. I think he’s had some sort of work done — fueled by Giselle’s input. Some sort of hair transplant, softening, thinning, conditioning type thing. He was dealing with male-pattern baldness a few years back — now he looks 22. Something ain’t right. I think some people are aliens.
* If Peyton Manning grew his hair out like that he’d look like some sort of half-baked, poor-man’s Matthew McConaughy (I’m tired and don’t care if I spelled that wrong). Peyton needs to do something unusual. He’s a dull robot.
* I get annoyed by: People who rave about the commercial acting of the Manning Bros. They are relentlessly tedious.
3
Sep
2009
Open season on offensive coordinators
The Tampa Buccaneers have become the second team in a week to fire their offensive coordinator. Last week, the Kansas City Chiefs dismissed Chan Gailey, who possessed an abundance of experience at the coordinator level (and served as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys for a spell). For the Chiefs, experience wasn’t the issue. For the Bucs, from what we’re told by Bucs beat writer Rick Stroud, experience–and lack of it–was the deciding factor in the firing of first-time NFL offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski.
Tampa Bay Head Coach Raheem Morris has shown no fear in making decisions to transform the Bucs.
Jagodzinski was let go today after team officials came to the conclusion that he wasn’t ready to run an NFL offense. Jagodzinski was hired this past winter by the Bucs following two successful seasons as head coach of the Boston College Eagles. After leading the team to consecutive 11-3 and 9-5 seasons, Jagodzinski was fired by Boston College when the team discovered that “Jag” had interviewed for the vacant New York Jets head coaching position. Soon after, he came to the Bucs with high hopes but, according to Stroud, “Sometime during training camp, it became increasingly apparent to Bucs officials and players, that Jagodzinski was not equipped to install and direct an NFL offense… as the preseason wore on, Bucs officials kept a close eye on Jagodzinski and did not feel he had the attention to detail required to remain as offensive coordinator.”
Now, honestly, I feel pretty rotten posting a story about a guy getting fired. That said, the process around “installing and offense” remains fascinating, and after watching Hard Knocks the past few nights, the coaches meetings–in every possible way–prove intriguing. We don’t frequently get a deep look into what these guys do, week to week. The game preparation, the film study, the meticulous preparation (sleeping three hours per day) is obviously intense.
The good news for Jagodzinski? NFL coaches have a tendency to bounce back. There’s no sense that he disenfranchised his peers, or came equipped with a poor attitude. And, like so many young players who find themselves released from their teams over the next 24 hours, there may be a second chance.
