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Did Belichick make the right call?

By ArtieFufkin

It's okay Bill. The numbers have your back. (Image: Detroit4lyfe.com)

The sports world has collectively been piling on Bill Belichick for his decision to go for it on 4th & 2 from his own 28-yard line with a 6-point lead and 2:08 to go in last night’s Patriots/Colts clash. (the result of that play can be viewed here)

The Colts, of course, went on to score a game-winning TD and escape with a 35-34 victory.  And since that moment, armchair coaches everywhere have been celebrating the failure of the dark lord Belichick, and second-guessing his decision not to punt the ball and let his defense make a stop.

But did Belichick, in fact, make the right call?  Well, the nerds over at AdvancedNFLStats.com conducted a statistical breakdown of the situation – based on the success/failure rates of both the 4th & 2 conversion and likelihood of the opponent scoring a TD from the 28-yd line with that much time left on the clock.

And guess what? The statistical analysis backs up Belichick’s decision to go for it, and by a decent margin! And guess what else?  Belichick has built a dynasty in New England by making exactly those types of gutsy calls.  So while most of us would play it safe in that situation, there’s a reason Belichick is the best head coach in the game today, and I wouldn’t expect him to change any time soon.